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 No births for one full year

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TheSmokeamater

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Age : 51
Location : Freeport, New York
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PostSubject: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:07 pm

If as of this very moment no one on earth conceives a child for one full year. Would it have a devastating effect on the world economy? Or would it benefit the economy?

This is not a trick question or anything. I'm just putting it out there for the heck of it.

A few things would be for sure. One being, the pediatric profession and all related industries would take a hard hit.
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jefe1037

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:17 pm

the drs would still have to take care of the young'ns that were born before and after the bump. most go to a pediatrician until their what, 12? so only 1/12 of the customer base would be missing.

all in all, reduction on the demand of food stores would be beneficial for poorer countries, but more developed countries would barely take a hit.

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Kyle Weiss

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:50 pm

My response has no bearing on the Brothers that have recently become fathers, I'm sure they'll do a stupendous job--all I know is, I'd be happier. The only thing I dislike more than children are their parents, which are usually responsible for the irritation with the first. Beyond that, I don't really care. Not much I can do about any of it, anyway. I try only to worry about things I can help personally.
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sstodvictory

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:58 pm

It would cause expansion of religious cults and doomsday hysteria, eco-freaks, enemies of the chemicals industry and other utopians would leverage it to advance their political agendas, and sales of pickles and ice cream would plummet.

Steve
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TheSmokeamater

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 11:32 pm

Kyle Weiss wrote:
My response has no bearing on the Brothers that have recently become fathers, I'm sure they'll do a stupendous job--all I know is, I'd be happier. The only thing I dislike more than children are their parents, which are usually responsible for the irritation with the first. Beyond that, I don't really care. Not much I can do about any of it, anyway. I try only to worry about things I can help personally.

I have no children nor do I plan to. I have occasion to observe parents and children nearly every day. I don't know if it's a problem unique to our times, but as far as I can tell most of the parents I see are, I wouldn't say "unfit", but rather very ill prepared or emotionally ill equipped to be rearing children. So many kids I encounter are absolute monsters, and it is obviously the result of bad parenting. I have nothing against kids per se. I can enjoy one's company in small doses.
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Kyle Weiss

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Location : Reno, NV
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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 11:41 pm

Well, with my recovery from some flavor of autism, I have a very sensitive nature to sound and vibration, and children's voices pretty much are the pinnacle of things that can make me go into a rage. CRT squeals, mechanical tapping and certain birds coming in at a close second. Beyond that, I have no idea how to talk to kids, so I usually talk to them like adults until they either go away or, more rarely, actually try and keep up...weirdly, kids think I'm super cool, and it's hard because I don't want to be rude to them. I'm terrified of babies and toddlers. Little known fact--been beat up by asshole cowboys all my life, don't wince a bit at them. You put a foot-and-a-half toddler in my path and I panic. Pretty stupid, huh? Neutral

Kids aren't at fault, nine times out of ten it's the parents, but there's a lot being contributed by bad schools, stupid laws and society's general acceptance of all of the above.

Thinking about it more, I truly think if there no births for a year from anyone, nothing would change one iota. The only industries affected would be baby-related, from hospital wards to stores, and I doubt that in itself would collapse an economy nor give the boost needed to show any benefit. Food stores would simply be that--stored, until it is needed, wasted or fed to animals.

Not having kids for 10 - 20 years? Then you'd see a difference.
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MisterE
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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 11:44 pm

Sounds a lot like a movie I saw....
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TheSmokeamater

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 11:47 pm

Kyle Weiss wrote:
Well, with my recovery from some flavor of autism, I have a very sensitive nature to sound and vibration, and children's voices pretty much are the pinnacle of things that can make me go into a rage. CRT squeals, mechanical tapping and certain birds coming in at a close second. Beyond that, I have no idea how to talk to kids, so I usually talk to them like adults until they either go away or, more rarely, actually try and keep up...weirdly, kids think I'm super cool, and it's hard because I don't want to be rude to them. I'm terrified of babies and toddlers. Little known fact--been beat up by asshole cowboys all my life, don't wince a bit at them. You put a foot-and-a-half toddler in my path and I panic. Pretty stupid, huh? Neutral

Kids aren't at fault, nine times out of ten it's the parents, but there's a lot being contributed by bad schools, stupid laws and society's general acceptance of all of the above.

Thinking about it more, I truly think if there no births for a year from anyone, nothing would change one iota. The only industries affected would be baby-related, from hospital wards to stores, and I doubt that in itself would collapse an economy nor give the boost needed to show any benefit. Food stores would simply be that--stored, until it is needed, wasted or fed to animals.

Not having kids for 10 - 20 years? Then you'd see a difference.
Kyle,
Are you Asperger's?
My wife is a diagnosed Aspie. She reacts to children and certain noises much the same as you have described. She also displays many of the typical Asperger's characteristics.
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monbla256

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 11:48 pm

I agree with Kyle, no effect whatsoever on the world other than the number of folks born for a year. Having had 4 children and now with 5 grandchildren, I have no problem with them. I do however feel very bad about the world my generation has left 'em. We had a chance to make some real changes and just got greedy and now we have the mess we are in.
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TheSmokeamater

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Thu Jun 14, 2012 11:57 pm

monbla256 wrote:
I agree with Kyle, no effect whatsoever on the world other than the number of folks born for a year. Having had 4 children and now with 5 grandchildren, I have no problem with them. I do however feel very bad about the world my generation has left 'em. We had a chance to make some real changes and just got greedy and now we have the mess we are in.

In some respects, to some degree of which I am not sure, this "greed" in my opinion has had an effect on parenting itself in a very direct way. The pressure put upon workers (parents) to produce for the company often means putting in ridiculous hours, being on call at all times. And usually its both parents working. It seems to me that would have a profound impact on how children are raised. How could it not? Combine that with the gross materialism we see all around us and there you go. How many people do you know who are "car poor"?

NO... I'm not a Commie. I just try to see things from as many sides as possible.
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Kyle Weiss

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Location : Reno, NV
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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 12:33 am

TheSmokeamater wrote:

Kyle,
Are you Asperger's?
My wife is a diagnosed Aspie. She reacts to children and certain noises much the same as you have described. She also displays many of the typical Asperger's characteristics.

*shrug* It's been theorized, but there's a lot of flavors of "crazy" in my family. I just have generic diagnoses from a few passing therapists and psych professionals. It's not like there's a cure, so I just plod on.

Monbla, sometimes things have to get worse for generations to appreciate and respect what's important in the world. Some generations get awesome times, some don't. It's luck of the draw. Sure, it's probably someone's fault, but who cares? Laughing
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gravel

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 12:56 am

There would be significantly less joy and less reason for joy. Children, in their neediness, confront parents with their inadequacy to be parents. Some will disengage and hide in plain sight. Others will work through their inadequacy and thus become adults in the process.

My bias: I'm a father of two squealing joyful girls.
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DrT999

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 6:31 am

Well, it would play havoc in the education system as the 'empty grade' progressed through the system. Other than that, not a big effect in the long term, esp since people who wanted kids 'now' would have supplied a fair portion of the 'missing' the year before or in the immediate years after.
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J Soshae

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:28 am

20 years later there is a slight hit to the tax base. If all dollars that went in returned per capita, then it would be a wash. We know that is not the case.
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Mr. Doody

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:56 am

very interesting TED piece on global population growth over time - an where growth will STOP.

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/en/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies.html

doody.
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Wet Dottle

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 5:06 pm

Low birth rates in are already a problem in many industrialized countries. No births for one year would be catastrophic.
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MisterE
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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 5:21 pm

I just can't see how it'd be catastrophic. I think there would be a blip for a year in the prenatal and newborn related heath care sectors, but beyond that, not much. I mean, there will still be kids around who need care. Five or ten years might have a bigger effect overall.

It's a little like the growth rings on a tree. During years with heavy rainfall there are big rings, and smaller ones for drought years. The tree itself remains pretty much the same.


Last edited by MisterE on Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Doc Manhattan

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 6:01 pm

Are we just talking pure mathematical effect? I have to side with the "non-catastrophic blip." It would depend on the sort of economy and workforce you had, but it'd level out.

The more interesting effect is the sociological reactions to the baby drought, which would depend on why there was such a drought. A full year of worldwide abstinence would make people really grouchy, I'd wager. A year where it was announced that by some magic, everyone would be sterile for 365 days? Invest in satin sheet manufacturers and Gatorade. In any scenario where people understood it was just a year, you have to figure there'd be a bumper crop of babies the following annum.

Then, there's the scenario where, unannounced, no one can conceive, and there's no promise the ability will ever return. People will rationally look for an answer... just kidding, legions of people will freak out in epic fashion, and a few real heels will rush in to profiteer off of all the freaking out. The usual.

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TheSmokeamater

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:05 pm

Quote :
You've got a collapse of confidence in the currency. People are gonna panic. There's gonna be gold riots, atonal music.. ...political chaos, mass suicide. Right? It's Germany before Hitler. You can see that. Jesus, I don't know what people are gonna do... ...when a six pack of Budweiser cost $ 1200.

----Peter Falk as Vince Ricardo, The In-Laws; 1979
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Wet Dottle

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:31 pm

Some of the problems of an aging population are the cost of health care and the cost of a retired (non-working but active) population. In both cases its the young and healthy paying for the old(er), which usually have higher costs of health care. As the population ages, there are fewer of the former paying for more of the latter. For example, an aging population is one of the important stress factors placed on Social Security. For hard numbers and facts use Google. Smile
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sstodvictory

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:54 am

Doc Manhattan wrote:
......Then, there's the scenario where, unannounced, no one can conceive, and there's no promise the ability will ever return. People will rationally look for an answer... just kidding, legions of people will freak out in epic fashion, and a few real heels will rush in to profiteer off of all the freaking out. The usual.

That's the scenario I imagined the OP was proposing - all males shooting blanks for a year or females dropping infertile eggs, no warning, no rational reason known. Lots of reasons imagined by rational types and kooks alike - along with their proposed action agendas.

The second coming of Christ.
The Mayan calendar as some interpret it was right.
Nostradamus predicted it.
Sterilized by cosmic rays, distant supernova, or television or cell phones.
Done in by chemicals in the drinking water.
Is this what happened to the dinosaurs?
Must implement the New World Order immediately.
etc., etc.

Not a single person on the planet would deny that something was seriously wrong. Economies would be seriously affected. What a superb idea for a Sci-Fi movie.

Steve
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Doc Manhattan

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Sat Jun 16, 2012 9:43 am

It wasn't exactly the scenario, but pretty darn close: Children of Men, 2006.
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TheSmokeamater

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Sat Jun 16, 2012 10:32 am

Not that any of these things would devastate the economy, but surely having no births for a year would impact:

Pediatric and related professions and industries.

School teachers and schools

Retail sales drop in back to school supplies & clothing

Some percentage drop in birthday/greeting card industry

Driver registration and license fees

Military recruitment

…and countless other things.
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J Soshae

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Sat Jun 16, 2012 9:52 pm

I do not care to get thrown in the "rubber room" so here are only the numbers. Decide for yourself what you wish.

300,000,000+ people in the US
4,000,000 births per year
50,000,000+ abortions since Roe v Wade
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TheSmokeamater

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PostSubject: Re: No births for one full year   Sat Jun 16, 2012 10:43 pm

I don't go there....ever.
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