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 A needless tragedy

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Vito

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Location : Earth
Registration date : 2007-12-10

PostSubject: A needless tragedy   Tue Oct 11, 2016 3:31 pm

Disclaimer: I have no connection to the websites linked below. I'm saddened by the loss of life and property due to Hurricane Matthew, especially because it was needless. I'm also just the messenger; please don't shoot me.

If I lived in the Atlantic Basin or Caribbean Basin hurricane zones, I would bookmark http://hurricanetrack.com/ and pay attention. Mark Sudduth has operated the site for 17 years. His updates and projections are based on NWS and NOAA data, which he digests into easy-to-understand plain English for anyone who wants to stay informed and stay safe.

Mark is not a gloom & doom sensationalist. He neither hypes the danger nor minimizes it. He just tells it like it is, based on the best available data and forecasts, which come from weather stations, satellites, and weather research aircraft actually flying in the storms. If you don't believe me, go watch his YouTube videos. Mark issues updated reports as needed, mostly based on data that are freely accessible by anyone who visits the National Hurricane Center website. The data lags real time by at most a couple of hours.

What happened with Matthew is a tragedy, but none of it was a surprise to anyone who was paying attention. Mark warned that the principal danger from Hurricane Matthew was flooding, not wind. He explicitly warned against driving in the flooded conditions. He even said that people would be lulled into a false expectation that, because it was "only" a Category 1 storm by the time it hit North Carolina, many would be unprepared, and there would be a resultant loss of life.  He said it would be a tragedy, and he already knew that it was going to happen because people don't pay attention to the information that's available to anyone with a device connected to the web.

I empathize with anyone who lost loved ones or property, but the tragedy of this storm is that the loss of life was avoidable. It's not exactly a secret that the Gulf coast and Atlantic coast have a hurricane season every year. All of the storm surge, rain, and flooding was predicted in the weather advisories. The information is all there, but until people take responsibility for their own safety by staying informed, this kind of tragedy will happen again and again. Thoughts and prayers have no power to prevent it. Rational behavior based on staying informed is the solution.

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AJ

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Age : 69
Location : East of the Rocky Mountains
Registration date : 2012-03-18

PostSubject: Re: A needless tragedy   Tue Oct 11, 2016 4:42 pm

Vito I totally agree with what you have written. At least ten of the deaths here in our state was due to people driving through flooded streets and roads. The local news media has been banging away about this very thing since two days before the storm arrived. During every weather report and news cast the public was warned Not To Drive Through Or On Flooded Streets And Roads.  The local TV stations went to continuous coverage for two days during the storm and repeated the warning about driving through flooded areas at least once every five minutes. Our Governor has made several pleas on TV for people to refrain from driving through flooded roads. He made his first plea the day before the storm arrived. So many lives lost needlessly is the real tragedy here. Sad

AJ
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Vito

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PostSubject: Re: A needless tragedy   Tue Oct 11, 2016 5:55 pm

Thanks for your reply, AJ. I posted with some expectation of getting slammed for being "insensitive" to the loss of life. Actually, exactly the opposite is true. I think its deplorable (in the real sense, not the Clintonian bullcrap sense) that anyone died. It just didn't have to happen.

The thing that set me off was a news report that blew my mind the day after the storm peaked. The report stated that police, fire, and other emergency services had effected over 1,000 rescues the night before, many of which were for people stranded in their cars. Exclamation

Police, fire, and other emergency services are among the few legitimate services that government (as it's now constituted) provides. I have enormous respect for the folks that put their own safety on the line to protect other people's lives and property. It irritates the hell out of me when those resources are sucked up and stretched to the limit rescuing people from their own stupidity and irresponsibility.

Here's what a dumb-ass I am. Every time something like this happens, I hear my rational mind saying, "Wow, bummer...but surely people will turn this tragic loss into a profit (the intangible kind of profit, which is always the most valuable) by learning from the mistakes of those who lost their lives..."

...but then I remember..."Oh, right...most people don't behave rationally...er, never mind...". (sigh) No

Anyhow, I'm glad you and the other brethren and sistren weathered the storm. Good on y'all!  cheers

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AJ

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Age : 69
Location : East of the Rocky Mountains
Registration date : 2012-03-18

PostSubject: Re: A needless tragedy   Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:18 pm

Vito wrote:

Here's what a dumb-ass I am. Every time something like this happens, I hear my rational mind saying, "Wow, bummer...but surely people will turn this tragic loss into a profit (the intangible kind of profit, which is always the most valuable) by learning from the mistakes of those who lost their lives..."

...but then I remember..."Oh, right...most people don't behave rationally...er, never mind...". (sigh) No

Anyhow, I'm glad you and the other brethren and sistren weathered the storm. Good on y'all!  cheers


I hate to tell you friend but people DON'T learn from their mistakes. We had a very similar situation when Hurricane Floyd dropped 22 inches of rain back in 95 or 96. A good number of those that lost their lives to the storm did so by driving through flooded streets and roads. If only takes 6 inches of fast moving water to push a car off the road and into a ditch. Smile

AJ
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Vito

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PostSubject: Re: A needless tragedy   Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:30 pm

Yeah, I'm afraid the old saying is true: "Any damn fool can learn from his own mistakes, but it takes a wise man to learn from the mistakes of others."

Evidently, we are not endowed with an over-abundance of wise men where stormage is concerned. No

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Fazby

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Age : 60
Location : Chicago area
Registration date : 2010-04-22

PostSubject: Re: A needless tragedy   Tue Oct 11, 2016 10:14 pm

It is universal: You can't fix stupid.
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jhuggett
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Age : 45
Location : Olympia, WA
Registration date : 2007-12-09

PostSubject: Re: A needless tragedy   Tue Oct 11, 2016 11:00 pm

Vito, I miss your posts. I even saw LL checks in every now and then. Miss you guys.

_________________
Jason

"Freedom, Security, Convenience: Choose Two"
"For me, I will take freedom over security and I will take security over convenience." ~ Dan Geer
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LL

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Location : KCMO
Registration date : 2007-12-29

PostSubject: Re: A needless tragedy   Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:28 am

I lived in southern Arizona for quite a while, and saw many monsoon seasons come and go.  At times, the rainfall from a monsoon-season thunderstorm---in the middle of the desert(?!)---matches that of hurricanes.  I was actually in a storm twenty years ago this month that was one of the most torrential rains ever recorded in the US.  Eight inches in 25 minutes.  Yes, it was insane.

Flash floods from such storms are common.  For the most part, the water follows natural runoff outlets called arroyos that are found all over the desert.  Think wide creek beds that are dry 99% of the time.  

Many arroyos cut through the cities and towns as well as the open areas.

You can probably see where this is going...

Because most people don't equate deserts and floods, there are conspicuous signs everywhere an arroyo crosses a road.  They don't give conditional instruction, but speak in absolutes.   The signs say DO NOT ENTER WHEN FLOODED OR YOU WILL DIE, DUMBASS.

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&biw=1858&bih=963&site=imghp&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=flash+flood+warning+signs+arizona&oq=flash+flood+warning+signs+arizona&gs_l=img.3...12023.21142.0.21997.15.15.0.0.0.0.58.769.15.15.0....0...1c.1.64.img..0.0.0.owOIO17fF7c

In addition, the airwaves each monsoon season are filled with public service warning-announcements even on non-storm days, and water rescues---and deaths---are heavily covered and publicized when they happen in the name of raising awareness.

The net result after a fuckin' century of knowledgeable humans running on non-stop to idiot humans about the dangers of flash floods in the Sonora Desert?

Yup.  Every year there are scores of rescues and no small number of deaths from people who drive up to the edge of a flooded arroyo, read the sign, look at the water, look back at the sign, think about being late to watch their favorite TV show, and press on the gas.  It's as reliable as gravity.

North Carolina didn't stand a chance.
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Vito

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PostSubject: Re: A needless tragedy   Wed Oct 12, 2016 3:47 am

jhuggett wrote:
Vito, I miss your posts. I even saw LL checks in every now and then. Miss you guys.


Brothah Jason! cheers

Yeah, you know how it is. We wander off from time to time, but we keep coming back...the brethren who are still walking around on our hind legs.

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