Given the never-ending barrage of anti-smoking propaganda, people who smoke any form of tobacco are probably going to be a dwindling minority. But, that is not to say that pipe smokers, in particular, will become extinct.
I first took up pipe smoking as a college freshman in 1971, most likely because I was an English major and the scent of pipe tobacco filled the English building. My faculty advisor smoked a pipe...in the office and in class, if you can imagine such a thing! I continued smoking a pipe until the early 1980s when the real decline in pipe smoking began. The early 80s marked a time when many great pipe stores went out of business and many fine factory brands, Sasieni and GBD to name just two, went to hell. In my case, my favorite store, Smokers' Haven in Columbus, closed its doors in the early 80s, Sobranie, and then Germain, stopped making SH's house blends, and the pipe world then was kind of in flux.
I only smoked the occasional cigar and somehow avoided the cigar boom of the 1990s but started smoking cigars passionately in 2001. That's what ultimately led me back to the pipe. I began amassing a pretty substantial cigar collection and bought a Bob Staebel Aristocrat to hold them. But, my orientation toward cigars changed in November 2007. I was in Chicago for an annual meeting and, as I always did when in Chicago, I spent my afternoons at Iwan Ries. Although on that trip I was only smoking cigars there, I spent most of my time at the pipe counter catching up on all that had changed in pipe world since I had left it more than 20 years before. Something just clicked and over the course of the next couple of months I got my old collection of GBDs out, cleaned them up and started smoking a pipe again. By summer 2008, I was selling a chunk of my cigars to convert into briar.
Why this long-winded history? I think my arc of involvement with pipes mirrors the experience of many. Cigars, not cigarettes, got me into smoking but, after a while, the variety offered by pipes becomes a stronger attraction. I rarely smoke a cigar now and when I do, the cigar flavor seems mono-chromatic compared to the techicolor flavor of pipe tobacco.
My sense of the future of the market is this--that it will always be relatively small but that it is growing incrementally. Cost, ultimately, will be a driving force as taxes on cigars increase. Pipe tobacco is still a bargain pricewise, even with the small SCHIP increase, but cigars are not. One cigar I like is the Davidoff 5000. I used to buy boxes of them; they now retail for over $360 a box. Think of what you can buy in pipes and pipe tobacco for $360. I think many cigar smokers will migrate over to pipes because of price as, apparently, are many younger people. This board, and others I read, seem to gain new members daily, many for the reasons I've described.
While the hey days of pipes will never return, I'm cautiously optimistic that this sub-culture will survive. It may be, however, that the B&Ms will continue to expire (or minimize pipes) but at least there are many outstanding on-line retailers to meet demand.